Summer 2019 Season Report

Written by Sam Svoboda

By the time fall season begins on September 9th, it will have been three full weeks since the last official shuffleboard match at Royal Palms. While crowd favorites Nothing But Pepp and Swift Biscuits gave us of the most epic championship matches we could have asked for, the high has started to wear off for many of us -- we’re going through shuffle withdrawals.

With all of the data that’s been put into, we decided to fill the time by following the lead of pretty much every other sport on the planet at this point: nerd out on some STATS.

If ’90s children’s sports movies have taught us anything, everyone loves an underdog story. So we decided to look into all the upsets that occurred in the summer season.

For our purposes, an upset is any time a team with a lower ELO coming into the match beats a team with a higher ELO. By that standard, about a third of all matches ended in upsets according to ELO. If you aren't familiar with ELO, give our FAQ or the ELO Wikipedia page a read.

Total Matches 554
Total Upsets 172
Upset % 31.05%

Biggest Upsets of the Season

Week Division Winner ELO Opponent ELO Differential
Week 3 Tuesday Pilot Karen from Finance 878 Orca Sliders 1106 228
Week 1 Tuesday Cherry The Omero Catangs 891 Summer Shufflerz 1109 218
Week 1 Monday Hammer Biscuit by that Much 973 Slippery Biscuits 1151 178
Summer Playoffs Group Play Chi Town Shufflers 870 Team Bell's Beer 1038 168
Week 7 Monday Hammer Neuken in the kitchen 971 Slippery Biscuits 1134 163
Week 5 Tuesday Cherry Slide into my DMs 960 All Day I Dream About Shuffling 1113 153
Week 2 Tuesday Hammer Wizards 3.0 1001 Resting Biscuit Face 1146 145
Summer Tie-Breakers Monday Hammer The Mighty Pucks 1024 Hammer Time 1165 141
Week 7 Tuesday Hammer Biscuit Buddies 986 All Your Biscuit Are Belong To Us 1118 132
Summer Playoffs Group Play Hell's Kitchen 999 Summer Shufflerz 1125 126

There were some truly massive upsets throughout the season, even into tiebreakers and playoffs. The two biggest upsets, with a 200+ ELO differential, both occurred early in the season on Tuesdays. Interestingly, the two teams that lost those matchups recovered to go 6-2 and are both still in the top 10 for ELO out of the whole league. And the two winners who pulled off the upsets both finished with 2-6 records and now have the two lowest ELOs in the league. Just goes to show that anything can happen at Royal Palms.

(On the flip side, the third biggest upset featured Biscuit by that Much shocking Slippery Biscuits in Week 1. They went on to post an impressive 7-1 record in Monday Hammer, cruelly losing a 5-way tiebreaker on the last shot and missing the playoffs by… that much.)

Top Upset Specialists

Team # of upsets
Puck Nasty 7
The Limp Biscuits 6
Shuffle Me Biscuits 5
Boca Breeze 5
Shuffle Butter 5
Hell's Kitchen 5
The Mighty Pucks 5
Any Given Monday 5

Puck Nasty started the season with an ELO of 982, then went on to win the Golden Tang for Tuesday Pilot and make the round of 8 in the playoffs, so it’s no surprise they sprung a number of upsets along the way. They were followed by the team who knocked them out of the playoffs, The Limp Biscuits, who notched six upsets on the season. Then six teams ended with five upsets.

Most Upsetting Courts

Court Upsets Total Matches Percentage
01 24 66 36.36%
02 21 67 31.34%
03 26 62 41.94%
04 16 62 25.81%
05 17 58 29.31%
06 21 58 36.21%
07 12 61 19.67%
08 18 61 29.51%
09 11 43 25.58%
10 6 16 37.50%

With all this data, we figured we’d answer a question that no one is asking: are certain courts more susceptible to upsets than others? Sample size be damned, we’re going to start calling Court 3 the “Upset Special Court.” And interesting to note that Court 7, with its massive drift, is least susceptible to upsets. Perhaps that’s the sign of a good team, they can use the drift to their advantage.

Best Matchups of the Season

Division Week Home Team ELO Away Team ELO Combined ELO Winner
Monday Hammer Summer Tie-Breakers Tu-Tang Clan 1193 Nothing But Pepp 1154 2347 Nothing But Pepp
Summer Playoffs Round of 8 Nothing But Pepp 1170 Resting Biscuit Face 1171 2341 Nothing But Pepp
Monday Hammer Week 8 Slippery Biscuits 1123 Tu-Tang Clan 1187 2310 Tu-Tang Clan
Tuesday Hammer Week 8 Resting Biscuit Face 1154 Itstimeforyourkiss 1150 2304 Resting Biscuit Face
Summer Playoffs Semi-Finals Nothing But Pepp 1177 The Cupid Shufflers 1125 2302 Nothing But Pepp
Summer Playoffs Group Play Itstimeforyourkiss 1139 Nothing But Pepp 1162 2301 Nothing But Pepp
Monday Cherry Week 1 Sponge Worthy 1144 Hammer Time 1147 2291 Sponge Worthy
Summer Playoffs Round of 16 Get Rich or Die Shufflin 1121 Hammer Time 1169 2290 Get Rich or Die Shufflin
Summer Playoffs Round of 8 Swift Biscuits 1087 Tu-Tang Clan 1199 2286 Swift Biscuits
Monday Hammer Week 6 Shuff It, Shuff It Real Good! 1093 Tu-Tang Clan 1192 2285 Shuff It, Shuff It Real Good!

Unsurprisingly, many of these matchups occurred in tiebreakers/playoffs. Also unsurprisingly, we see a lot of the same teams show up repeatedly on the list. Ironically, though, the best matchup of the season was also one of the least important. Nothing But Pepp had already secured the Golden Tang for Monday Hammer, and Tu-Tang had just won a dramatic 5-team speed shuffle to earn a playoff spot and the second seed in the division. There was literally nothing at stake except pride. And momentum, if you believe in that, but it’s not like the winner of this matchup went on to do anything noteworthy in the postseason...

Division ELOs

Division Teams Average ELO
Monday Pilot 16 1009
Monday Cherry 16 1019
Monday Hammer 20 1028
Tuesday Pilot 18 986
Tuesday Cherry 18 1008
Tuesday Hammer 18 1011

Monday Hammer was the toughest division according to ELO, with Monday Cherry just behind. This makes sense, as those two divisions were home to four of the five champions in Royal Palms Chicago history. It will be interesting to check on these numbers again in a few months with Monday Hammer becoming the challenge division.

Biggest Movers

Team ELO Gain
Nothing But Pepp 75
Any Given Monday 67
Boca Breeze 60
The Cupid Shufflers 55
Puck Nasty 54
Biscuits & Bacardi 51
The Mighty Pucks 44
Hell's Kitchen 42
Swift Biscuits 42
Little Davey and The Pistol Petes 29

In news that will shock no one, the Pepp Boys (not to be confused with the Pepp Boiz) had the biggest ELO gain for the year - a 9-0 regular season in Monday Hammer plus winning the playoffs will do that. But the rest of the top 10 is filled mostly by formerly decent teams who made a leap this season to become legitimate playoffs teams. Most of these teams have been around for a while, so if you’re a team that has been struggling to break through, there is plenty of hope!

Strength of Schedule

Team Average Opponent ELO
Mr. Dr. Nut 1072
Nothing But Pepp 1069
Wizards 3.0 1061
Slippery Biscuits 1060
Gettin' Tang in The Kitchen 1059
Shuff It, Shuff It Real Good! 1058
Booty Tang 1054
Itstimeforyourkiss 1053
We Thought This Was Quidditch 1052
Boca Breeze 1049

These results are definitely influenced by playoffs, but it’s not surprising to see seven Monday Hammer teams in the top 10 for strength of schedule. It also makes NBP’s championship even more impressive, given that they faced the second toughest schedule according to ELO.

That’s it for this report. If you have any other stats you’d like to see, or are curious about stats for your team last season, follow us on Instagram or send us an email!